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As global leaders gather in the Brazilian Amazon for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to assess how we are faring together in cutting worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

Despite 30 years of United Nations climate conferences, approximately half of the carbon dioxide accumulated in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted since 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which verified the threat of anthropogenic climate change. While researchers work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that their work remains eclipsed by political agendas. Regardless of well-intentioned efforts, the planet is remains dangerously off track to avert catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Carbon-Based Fuel Dependency

Recent data indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a record high of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. According to the Global Carbon Project, 90% of total global CO₂ emissions in 2024 originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% was due to alterations in land use such as forest clearance and wildfires.

Although the increase in carbon emissions from fuels in recent times was propelled by higher use of gas and oil—representing more than 50% of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also reached a historic peak, making up 41%. Despite Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to move beyond carbon fuels, collective plans still intend to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than aligns with limiting global warming to 1.5C, with continued extraction of gas justified as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Mirage of Eco-Friendly Measures

Rather than concentrating on financial motivators to accelerate the elimination of fossil fuels, environmental strategies are heavily reliant on feelgood nature positive solutions that aim to cancel out carbon emissions by planting trees instead of cutting industrial emissions. While protecting, expanding, and rehabilitating natural carbon sinks like woodlands and marshes is inherently good, research has shown that there is not enough land to reach the worldwide target of net zero emissions using nature-based solutions alone.

Approximately one billion hectares—an area bigger than the USA—is required to meet carbon neutrality commitments. Over forty percent of this area would need to be converted from existing uses like agriculture to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this ideal restoration could be realized, woodlands take time to mature and can burn down, so they should not be viewed as a quick or lasting carbon storage solution, particularly in a rapidly shifting environment. While extreme heat and dryness affect more of the planet, these well-intentioned efforts could actually be destroyed by fire.

The Diminishing of Planetary Absorbers

Scientific evidence indicates that about half of the total CO₂ emitted each year stays in the air, while the rest is taken up by seas and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these environmental absorbers are losing efficiency at capturing CO₂, meaning that additional CO2 builds up in the atmosphere, further exacerbating global warming. Transferring the reduction responsibility onto the agricultural and forest sectors effectively excuses the oil and gas sector from the urgency to cut pollution any time soon.

The Carbon Debt and Future Generations

Reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently depends largely on land-based measures to absorb excess carbon from the air. Polluters can simply buy carbon credits to compensate for their emissions and proceed with business as usual. At the same time, the energy imbalance resulting from the burning of fossil fuels continues to further destabilise the Earth’s climate. Essentially, we are adding more carbon debt to our planetary credit card, passing on future generations with an insurmountable burden.

To limit the magnitude and duration of overshoot the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the world eventually needs to surpass the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and start to remove past carbon outputs to achieve net negative emissions.

The Policy Misrepresentation of Carbon Neutrality

Based on the most recent data from the international carbon research group, vegetation-based CDR is presently capturing the equal of about five percent of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction represents only about one-millionth of the carbon released from fossil fuels. Optimistic industry estimates place it at around 0.1% of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is a deceptive gap that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eliminate the primary cause of our overheating planet—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

Although this scientific reality should dominate discussions at the climate summit, history suggests that gradual, cautious steps and political kowtowing will prevail. Ambiguous promises of future ambition will continue to postpone the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Unless leaders are brave enough to put a price on carbon to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are releasing more and more carbon to the atmosphere, worsening the environmental disaster now unfolding all around us.

The dilemma we face is simple: genuinely respond to the scientific reality of our predicament or suffer the results of this profound moral failure for generations ahead.