Daily Killings in Mexico Drop Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The average figure of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative figures. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide data might not point to better countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November compared with roughly 87 when the President took the presidency in September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen over these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were registered for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly military operations to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is notably true given the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was also problematic because it could mask periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.